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55.6k+ Predictions
419+ forecasting questions
131+ Questions resolved
12 years of predictions
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Learn about ways you can work with us
Private Instances
Deploy the Metaculus platform within your organization to surface insights and seamlessly combine the knowledge and expertise from across your team.
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Pro Forecasters
Engage Metaculus Pro Forecasters on the questions that you care about most, whether on your private instance or on questions launched on Metaculus.
Our most accurate forecasters deliver calibrated predictions paired with clear reasoning, empowering decision-makers to act with confidence.
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Bring together experts and stakeholders to align on complex problems in focused, real-time sessions. Our team manages the process end-to-end, using proven forecasting methods to rapidly surface critical uncertainties, key insights, and areas of disagreement.
Case studies
Examples of how partners use Metaculus to answer hard questions.
Research Agencies Outlook
Among the key findings:
- Both NIH and NSF were expected to avoid deep cuts, with appropriations broadly stable.
- NSF faces greater near-term risk in FY2026 due to a $2B gap between House and Senate proposals, but outcomes were expected to align more closely with the Senate's status quo position.
About this initiative
Commissioned by Coefficient Giving's Abundance & Growth Fund, the Research Agencies Outlook presents predictions and reasoning from Metaculus Pro Forecasters about the budget and obligations of the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and National Science Foundation (NSF) for fiscal years 2026 through 2028. These forecasts matter because NIH and NSF are not just agencies, but are two of the largest sources of public funding for basic research in the world. Anticipating their budget trajectories is critical for scientists, institutions, and policymakers alike.
In partnership with
Forecasting Our World in Data: The Next 100 Years
Among the key findings:
- The next 100 years were expected to see high-growth, longer lifespans, and radically higher productivity, largely driven by AI and associated technological developments.
- Energy was predicted to become cleaner and more abundant overall in the long run.
- Long-run demographics and political shifts were a key uncertainty, with declining fertility, stabilizing population with AI-disaster tail risks, flat trust in government, and a slowly climbing number of people living in liberal democracies.
About this initiative
Developed in collaboration with Our World in Data (OWID), this project deployed Metaculus Pro Forecasters to predict key measures of human progress over various time horizons. Thirty OWID-tracked time-series metrics were selected to collectively illuminate what the future might hold according to Metaculus's most accurate forecasters.
In partnership with
